Fysiska handeln är död, eller?

I veckan kom den alltid lika intressanta E-barometern och i samband med detta skrev Carin Blom, Detaljhandelsanalytiker på PostNord, en intressant artikel omkring den brytpunkt som våren innebar, då hela tillväxten i sällanköpshandeln kom från E-handelssegmentet. PostNord sammanfattar rapporten i ett antal punkter:

  • ”Vi har nått en brytpunkt i detaljhandeln. E-handeln stod för all försäljningstillväxt inom sällanköpsvaruhandeln under första halvåret 2017.
  • E-handeln ökade under andra kvartalet med 15 procent. Starkast tillväxt visade barnartiklar och leksaker (24 procent) samt bygghandeln (20 procent).
  • Ökat fokus på konsumentdriven logistik kan lyfta tillväxten framöver i e-handeln.
  • 8 av 10 konsumenter tycker att det är viktigt att få välja leveranssätt, men endast varannan får faktiskt välja idag.
  • Var femte konsument har valt att handla från ett annat företag än de tänkt sig, för att de inte fick välja leveranssätt.”

Jag har i tidigare artiklar, bland andra – ”Den fysiska butikens roll i den digitala revolutionen””De stora detaljhandelsskiftena och framtidens kundresa” och ”Tankar inför höstens budgetdiskussioner – viktiga frågor inför 2018” skrivit en hel del om hur jag ser på utvecklingen framåt med bland annat en tydlig rollfördelning mellan e-handeln och fysiska butiker. Min tes är att det kommer att ställas högre krav på upplevelse och övriga delar av kundmötet för att skapa ett incitament att gå till en fysisk butik – ett krav som aktualiseras när tillgängligheten för e-handeln kommer att öka genom en förbättrad logistik och förbättrad service, vad gäller till exempel hemleveranser.

Butiksdöden är ”old news”

”-Vem är du?

Jag är Döden.

Kommer du för att hämta mig?

Jag har redan länge gått vid din sida.”

Ordväxlingen från ”Det sjunde inseglet” känner de flesta igen och den stämmer även in på den förändring som nu sker inom detaljhandeln. Det är ett tankefel att föreställa sig butiksdöden som något som skulle ske plötsligt och över en natt. Faktum är att butiksdöden redan pågått under en lång tid tillbaka, där småskalig handel under lång tid varit under press från konceptualiserade kedjor. Enligt HUI har det till exempel mellan åren 2008- 2015 försvunnit 20 % av hemelektronikbutikerna, 18 % av heminredningsbutikerna och 15 % av sportbutikerna i Sverige. Övriga branscher inom sällanköpshandeln har visat liknande tal. Butiksdöden är alltså en pågående förändringsprocess där handeln koncentreras mot färre aktörer i den fysiska handeln och samtidigt konkurrensutsätts från nätet. Utvecklingen inom detaljhandeln har varit snabbast inom E-handeln under lång tid sett i procentuell tillväxt, men inte i reella tal. Det är den sistnämnda förändringen som nu kan vara på gång, vilket också stämmer med HUIs prognoser för de kommande åren och som kommer att påskynda utslagningen av koncept som kämpat med lönsamhet under en längre tid och som nu så att säga ”tippar över kanten”.

I USA pågår en liknande process med en strid ström av nyheter om kedjor som på bred front drar ner sina fysiska etableringar och som begär rekonstruktion, eller köps upp av andra aktörer.

Men viktigt att komma ihåg är att ”Butiksdöden” inte ligger framför oss, utan att vi under minst tio år haft den framför våra ögon.

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